Grain and livestock markets started the week with strength but started to show signs of near-term exhaustion in Thursday’s trade. Is the rally at risk of coming to an end?

Soybeans

Technicals
Soybeans got taken to the woodshed yesterday, breaking and closing below support from 1021 3/4-1028. The market is trying to work its way back into that pocket will be a bit of an inflection point into the weekend. A failure to gain ground back above here could keep the pressure on with downside objectives coming in from 1003-1008 1/4. This pocket is both technically and psychologically significant, representing previously important price points along with the 50-dma.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1055-1062 1/2****, 1097 1/4-1101****
Pivot: 1021 3/4-1028
Support: 1003-1008 1/4***

Fundamental Notes

Brazilian Crop Estimate Update – Agroconsult

Agroconsult told a press conference local farmers will reap a record 172.4 million metric tons, compared with the 172.2 million tons forecast before. It kept plantings on 47.5 million hectares (117.375 million acres), the largest ever soybean area for the world’s biggest producer and exporter.

Weekly Export Sales

Net sales of 569,100 MT for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Thursday Morning Flash Sale

132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.13.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 1.14.25 )

Managed Money reduced their net short position to just 28,612 contracts. Keep in mind that this data doesn’t include Friday’s or Monday’s trade, they are likely back to net long for the first time since December 26th 2023.
 

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